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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+6.28vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.78+5.50vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.88+4.18vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.71+3.72vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.49+3.79vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.53-1.17vs Predicted
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7Hampton University3.02-0.44vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-1.34vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.43-0.33vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook2.59-1.95vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.71+0.72vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.89-0.68vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-0.36vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.49-1.36vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.15-5.19vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.63-4.04vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.72-1.92vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.03-1.08vs Predicted
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19SUNY Stony Brook0.79-4.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.1%1st Place
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7.5George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
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7.18U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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7.72Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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8.79George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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4.83Georgetown University3.530.2%1st Place
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6.56Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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6.66St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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8.67Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.05SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
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11.72Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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11.32Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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12.64Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
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12.64University of Pennsylvania1.490.0%1st Place
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9.81U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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11.96Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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15.08Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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16.92SUNY Maritime College0.030.0%1st Place
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14.68SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Neubelt | 6.2% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Brill | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Matt Cappetta | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Andy Reiter | 17.6% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Amanda Attardi | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 4.0% |
| Caroline Garth | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 3.8% |
| Tyler Fleig | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 20.1% | 20.4% |
| Maura King | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 17.7% | 46.3% |
| James Gilmore III | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 19.0% | 16.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.