← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cornell University2.43+7.84vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University3.53+2.89vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.88+4.13vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+3.30vs Predicted
-
5Hampton University3.02+1.69vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Naval Academy2.15+3.88vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Stony Brook2.59+1.22vs Predicted
-
8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-1.34vs Predicted
-
9Fordham University2.71-1.40vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University2.78-2.69vs Predicted
-
11Washington College1.63+1.01vs Predicted
-
12University of Pennsylvania1.49+0.83vs Predicted
-
13Christopher Newport University1.89-2.24vs Predicted
-
14Christopher Newport University1.71-2.18vs Predicted
-
15George Washington University2.49-6.46vs Predicted
-
16Drexel University0.72-0.83vs Predicted
-
17Stevens Institute of Technology1.40-4.24vs Predicted
-
18SUNY Stony Brook0.79-3.02vs Predicted
-
19SUNY Maritime College0.03-2.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.84Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
-
4.89Georgetown University3.530.2%1st Place
-
7.13U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
-
7.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.1%1st Place
-
6.69Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
-
9.88U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
-
8.22SUNY Stony Brook2.590.1%1st Place
-
6.66St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
-
7.6Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
-
7.31George Washington University2.780.1%1st Place
-
12.01Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
-
12.83University of Pennsylvania1.490.0%1st Place
-
10.76Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
-
11.82Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
-
8.54George Washington University2.490.1%1st Place
-
15.17Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
-
12.76Stevens Institute of Technology1.400.0%1st Place
-
14.98SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
-
16.63SUNY Maritime College0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Balk | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Andy Reiter | 16.4% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Brill | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Max Neubelt | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Fleig | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Carolyn Smith | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matt Cappetta | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sam White | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% |
| Caroline Garth | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 4.2% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| Amanda Attardi | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 20.9% | 19.1% |
| Julian Fraize | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 5.4% |
| James Gilmore III | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 17.7% | 18.4% |
| Maura King | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 16.7% | 45.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.