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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.32+6.87vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.42+5.56vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+1.33vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.28+4.04vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+2.43vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.26+2.03vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.22-2.28vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.87+1.94vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-0.49vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+2.49vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.35-3.32vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania0.86+1.95vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.73-2.94vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.35-2.08vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.26-3.03vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook1.41-4.59vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.71-2.96vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook0.90-4.55vs Predicted
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19Drexel University-0.28-2.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.87George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.56U. S. Naval Academy2.420.1%1st Place
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4.33Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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8.04George Washington University2.280.1%1st Place
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7.43St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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8.03Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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4.72U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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9.94SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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8.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.1%1st Place
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12.49Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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7.68Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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13.95University of Pennsylvania0.860.0%1st Place
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10.06Fordham University1.730.0%1st Place
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11.92Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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11.97Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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11.41SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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14.04Christopher Newport University0.710.0%1st Place
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13.45SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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16.59Drexel University-0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wade Wagner | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| James Morgan | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| William Logue | 19.1% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Kennedy | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Greer Wattson | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Peter Hogan | 14.9% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 5.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Raemie Ladner | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 16.0% | 9.6% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Anna Patterson | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Paul Hart | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 5.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Bailey Hurst | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 16.6% | 13.6% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 9.4% |
| Cooper Voigt | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 49.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.