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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.39+3.35vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.35+5.86vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+9.78vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.22+0.72vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.42+2.77vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.26+2.15vs Predicted
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7Washington College1.26+5.34vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.87+1.99vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.32-1.11vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49-2.88vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-2.31vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.35+0.31vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook1.41-1.56vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.71+0.48vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook0.90-1.48vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.28-7.99vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.73-6.64vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania0.86-4.21vs Predicted
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19Drexel University0.58-4.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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7.86Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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12.78Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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4.72U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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7.77U. S. Naval Academy2.420.1%1st Place
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8.15Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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12.34Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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9.99SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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7.89George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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8.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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12.31Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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11.44SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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14.48Christopher Newport University0.710.0%1st Place
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13.52SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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8.01George Washington University2.280.1%1st Place
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10.36Fordham University1.730.0%1st Place
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13.79University of Pennsylvania0.860.0%1st Place
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14.43Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | 17.7% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 15.5% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Morgan | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Paul Hart | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 5.7% |
| Arthur Libby | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Wade Wagner | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Greer Wattson | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Anna Patterson | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% |
| Bailey Hurst | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 20.2% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 16.8% |
| Colin Kennedy | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Raemie Ladner | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 14.7% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 21.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.