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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.39+3.34vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.87+7.82vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.35+4.92vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.42+3.58vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.32+3.19vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.26+6.22vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.49+0.25vs Predicted
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8Hampton University2.26+0.43vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.22-4.32vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.35+1.88vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.71+3.40vs Predicted
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12Drexel University0.58+3.13vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-0.55vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.90-0.20vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.28-6.91vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook1.41-4.39vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania0.86-3.28vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-9.42vs Predicted
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19Fordham University1.73-9.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.34Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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9.82SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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7.92Cornell University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.58U. S. Naval Academy2.420.1%1st Place
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8.19George Washington University2.320.1%1st Place
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12.22Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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7.25St. Mary's College of Maryland2.490.1%1st Place
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8.43Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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4.68U. S. Naval Academy3.220.2%1st Place
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11.88Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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14.4Christopher Newport University0.710.0%1st Place
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15.13Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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12.45Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.0%1st Place
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13.8SUNY Stony Brook0.900.0%1st Place
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8.09George Washington University2.280.1%1st Place
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11.61SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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13.72University of Pennsylvania0.860.0%1st Place
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8.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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9.93Fordham University1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | 16.9% | 16.1% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Matthew Schofield | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| James Morgan | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Wade Wagner | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Paul Hart | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| Greer Wattson | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Peter Hogan | 17.6% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Patterson | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% |
| Bailey Hurst | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 18.6% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 25.9% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 13.0% |
| Colin Kennedy | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.7% |
| Raemie Ladner | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 14.6% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.