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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+5.15vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.66+8.29vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.52+3.70vs Predicted
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4Tufts University4.08+4.43vs Predicted
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5Boston University4.07+3.69vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.40+5.29vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.88+2.32vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.50+3.21vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University3.920.00vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston4.00-1.33vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.02+2.09vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.62-1.12vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.04-0.24vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.89-5.64vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College4.06-7.53vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79-7.41vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont3.62-7.60vs Predicted
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19Bowdoin College3.25-6.95vs Predicted
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20Eckerd College2.78-6.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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10.29U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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6.7Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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8.43Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.69Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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11.29Brown University3.400.0%1st Place
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9.32Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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11.21Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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9.0Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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8.67College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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13.09Connecticut College3.020.0%1st Place
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10.88University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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12.76Roger Williams University3.040.0%1st Place
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9.36Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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8.47Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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9.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.0%1st Place
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10.4University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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12.05Bowdoin College3.250.0%1st Place
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13.67Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ingham | 10.7% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.7% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| William Haeger | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Ben Greenfield | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% |
| Alex Cook | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Samuel Stokes | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Wells Bacon | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 14.8% |
| Matthew Carmody | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% |
| Tucker Blagden | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 14.6% |
| Cam Cullman | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Sam Williams | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Sam Padnos | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| Coleman Bowen | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% |
| D.J. Hatch | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 19.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.