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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+8.93vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College4.06+6.70vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.52+3.78vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.89+5.42vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.50+6.47vs Predicted
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6Tufts University4.08+2.49vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-0.73vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.40+3.84vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston4.00-0.27vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.66+0.40vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University3.92-1.77vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.62-0.97vs Predicted
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13Boston University4.07-4.70vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont3.62-3.26vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College3.66-4.72vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College3.25-3.80vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University3.04-3.90vs Predicted
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18Boston College3.88-8.68vs Predicted
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19Eckerd College2.78-5.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.0%1st Place
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8.7Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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6.78Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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9.42Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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11.47Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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8.49Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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11.84Brown University3.400.0%1st Place
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8.73College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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10.4U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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9.23Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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11.03University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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8.3Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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10.74University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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10.28Connecticut College3.660.0%1st Place
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12.2Bowdoin College3.250.0%1st Place
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13.1Roger Williams University3.040.0%1st Place
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9.32Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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13.78Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Padnos | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% |
| Sam Williams | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Cam Cullman | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Nick Dugdale | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% |
| William Haeger | 8.2% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Samuel Ingham | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% |
| Samuel Stokes | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| Matthew Carmody | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% |
| Ben Greenfield | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Coleman Bowen | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 4.2% |
| Michael Marshall | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% |
| D.J. Hatch | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 11.3% |
| Tucker Blagden | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 17.1% |
| Alex Cook | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 22.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.