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📊 Prediction Accuracy
10.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.00+7.96vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+7.86vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.89+6.51vs Predicted
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4Harvard University4.52+2.66vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.06+3.91vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.66+3.37vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.62+2.68vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College3.25+3.49vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-3.90vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.66-0.66vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.04+1.18vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University3.92-3.35vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.40-2.65vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.50-3.73vs Predicted
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16Boston University4.07-7.47vs Predicted
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17Tufts University4.08-8.55vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island3.62-7.43vs Predicted
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19Boston College3.88-9.73vs Predicted
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20Eckerd College2.78-6.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.96College of Charleston4.000.0%1st Place
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9.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.1%1st Place
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9.51Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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6.66Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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8.91Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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10.37U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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10.68University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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12.49Bowdoin College3.250.0%1st Place
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6.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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10.34Connecticut College3.660.0%1st Place
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13.18Roger Williams University3.040.0%1st Place
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9.65Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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11.35Brown University3.400.0%1st Place
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11.27Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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8.53Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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8.45Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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10.57University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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9.27Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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13.84Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Stokes | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| Sam Padnos | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% |
| Alan Palmer | 9.3% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Sam Williams | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% |
| D.J. Hatch | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 11.9% |
| Samuel Ingham | 13.2% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Michael Marshall | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Tucker Blagden | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 14.6% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% |
| Nick Dugdale | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% |
| Ben Greenfield | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| William Haeger | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Matthew Carmody | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% |
| Alex Cook | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 23.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.