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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University4.08+7.43vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+4.17vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College4.06+5.58vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.87+9.71vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+4.95vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.50+4.89vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.88+2.32vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.66+2.54vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.66+1.04vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston4.00-1.27vs Predicted
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11Boston University4.07-2.59vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University3.92-2.54vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont3.62-2.86vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University3.04-0.85vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.40-3.74vs Predicted
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16Yale University3.89-6.90vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College3.25-4.95vs Predicted
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19Harvard University4.52-12.56vs Predicted
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20Eckerd College2.78-6.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.43Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.17U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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8.58Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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13.71University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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9.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.0%1st Place
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10.89Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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9.32Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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10.54U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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10.04Connecticut College3.660.0%1st Place
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8.73College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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8.41Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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9.46Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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10.14University of Vermont3.620.1%1st Place
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13.15Roger Williams University3.040.0%1st Place
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11.26Brown University3.400.0%1st Place
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9.1Yale University3.890.0%1st Place
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12.05Bowdoin College3.250.0%1st Place
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6.44Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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13.63Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Haeger | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Samuel Ingham | 12.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sam Williams | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Hughes | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 20.4% |
| Sam Padnos | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Nick Dugdale | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% |
| Alex Cook | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% |
| Michael Marshall | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% |
| Samuel Stokes | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| Ben Greenfield | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Coleman Bowen | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| Tucker Blagden | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 14.3% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% |
| Cam Cullman | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| D.J. Hatch | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.6% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 19.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.