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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.66+9.29vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.52+4.63vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston4.00+5.89vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont3.62+6.49vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+4.96vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College4.06+2.43vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.88+2.27vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-1.68vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University3.92-0.12vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.89-0.88vs Predicted
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11Tufts University4.08-2.65vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.66-1.36vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.40-1.79vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.87-0.17vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.50-5.17vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University3.04-4.09vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College3.25-5.97vs Predicted
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19Boston University4.07-10.69vs Predicted
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20Eckerd College2.78-6.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.29Connecticut College3.660.0%1st Place
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6.63Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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8.89College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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10.49University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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9.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.0%1st Place
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8.43Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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9.27Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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6.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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8.88Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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9.12Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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8.35Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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10.64U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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11.21Brown University3.400.0%1st Place
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13.83University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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10.83Stanford University3.500.0%1st Place
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12.91Roger Williams University3.040.0%1st Place
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12.03Bowdoin College3.250.0%1st Place
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8.31Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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13.61Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Marshall | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 3.7% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Stokes | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% |
| Coleman Bowen | 2.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Sam Padnos | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Sam Williams | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Alex Cook | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Samuel Ingham | 12.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Cam Cullman | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| William Haeger | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% |
| Ryan Hughes | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 19.7% |
| Nick Dugdale | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% |
| Tucker Blagden | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 14.2% |
| D.J. Hatch | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| Ben Greenfield | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 19.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.