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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.37+8.25vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.67+3.11vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.48+2.81vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.79+4.14vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College1.76+3.28vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.02-1.59vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.97+0.19vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.50-2.25vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.36-2.71vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.42-0.59vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.36-4.69vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.53-3.04vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College1.27-3.34vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.99-3.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.370.0%1st Place
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5.11Yale University2.670.1%1st Place
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5.81Boston College2.480.1%1st Place
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8.14Boston University1.790.0%1st Place
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8.28Connecticut College1.760.0%1st Place
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4.41Brown University3.020.2%1st Place
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7.19University of Vermont1.970.1%1st Place
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5.75Harvard University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.29University of Rhode Island2.360.1%1st Place
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9.41Northeastern University1.420.0%1st Place
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6.31Roger Williams University2.360.1%1st Place
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8.96Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.530.0%1st Place
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9.66Bowdoin College1.270.0%1st Place
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10.44Tufts University0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darden Purrington | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 12.0% |
| Katharina (KB) Knapp | 12.9% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Lily McGrath | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Allison Cahn | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% |
| Julia Leighton | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% |
| Sophie Hibben | 15.5% | 17.5% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Annie Spence | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| Lucy Wilmot | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Delaney Bamford | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Sofia Kirkman | 4.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 14.3% |
| Kelsey Shakin | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Sarah Caso | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.5% |
| Emily Gonzalez | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 15.3% | 15.4% |
| Elena Gonick | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 25.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.