← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University2.61+3.92vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University2.23+3.75vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+1.81vs Predicted
-
4George Washington University2.35+1.63vs Predicted
-
5University of Virginia1.31+3.57vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University2.77-1.35vs Predicted
-
7University of Vermont1.37+1.03vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Barbara1.67-0.54vs Predicted
-
9Dartmouth College2.99-4.92vs Predicted
-
10Queen's University0.53+0.50vs Predicted
-
11Old Dominion University2.14-4.71vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Stony Brook-0.92+0.87vs Predicted
-
13Northwestern University1.00-3.80vs Predicted
-
14Columbia University-0.51-1.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.92Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
-
5.75Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
-
4.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
-
5.63George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
-
8.57University of Virginia1.310.0%1st Place
-
4.65Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
-
8.03University of Vermont1.370.0%1st Place
-
7.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.1%1st Place
-
4.08Dartmouth College2.990.2%1st Place
-
10.5Queen's University0.530.0%1st Place
-
6.29Old Dominion University2.140.1%1st Place
-
12.87SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
-
9.2Northwestern University1.000.0%1st Place
-
12.23Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Ferguson | 12.3% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Molly Pleskus | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Bailey Carter | 13.6% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aitana Mendiguren | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Julia Gowell | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 6.2% | 1.1% |
| Gabby Rizika | 13.5% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Brown | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 0.8% |
| Madeline Kraus | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Emma White | 16.5% | 18.7% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Tanczak | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 23.4% | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 9.4% | 23.8% | 53.7% |
| Katherine O'Donnell | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 16.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% |
| Haley Collins | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 34.6% | 32.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.