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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia1.31+7.36vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+2.74vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.23+2.95vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+3.50vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.37+3.36vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.99-1.90vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.35-1.64vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.61-3.08vs Predicted
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9Queen's University0.53+1.42vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.14-3.73vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-6.39vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.00-2.68vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-0.21vs Predicted
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14Columbia University-0.51-1.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.36University of Virginia1.310.0%1st Place
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4.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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5.95Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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7.5University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.1%1st Place
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8.36University of Vermont1.370.0%1st Place
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4.1Dartmouth College2.990.2%1st Place
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5.36George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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4.92Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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10.42Queen's University0.530.0%1st Place
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6.27Old Dominion University2.140.1%1st Place
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4.61Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.32Northwestern University1.000.0%1st Place
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12.79SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
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12.28Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Gowell | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 1.5% |
| Bailey Carter | 13.1% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Pleskus | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Samantha Brown | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
| Emma White | 17.5% | 15.2% | 15.3% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aitana Mendiguren | 9.6% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 12.8% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Tanczak | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 23.3% | 18.3% | 6.9% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Gabby Rizika | 13.9% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine O'Donnell | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 16.5% | 15.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 8.0% | 24.2% | 53.9% |
| Haley Collins | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 15.3% | 32.0% | 33.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.