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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.23+4.88vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia1.31+6.30vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+1.86vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.99+0.04vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.61+0.03vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+1.58vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.77-2.65vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.37+0.20vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.35-3.37vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.00-0.59vs Predicted
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11Queen's University0.53-0.55vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.51+0.33vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.14-6.87vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-1.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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8.3University of Virginia1.310.0%1st Place
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4.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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4.04Dartmouth College2.990.2%1st Place
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5.03Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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7.58University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.0%1st Place
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4.35Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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8.2University of Vermont1.370.0%1st Place
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5.63George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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9.41Northwestern University1.000.0%1st Place
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10.45Queen's University0.530.0%1st Place
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12.33Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
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6.13Old Dominion University2.140.1%1st Place
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12.81SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Pleskus | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Julia Gowell | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Bailey Carter | 13.6% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emma White | 17.1% | 15.9% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 10.4% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| Gabby Rizika | 17.7% | 15.0% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Brown | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 5.6% | 1.2% |
| Aitana Mendiguren | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Katherine O'Donnell | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 17.1% | 15.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% |
| Natalie Tanczak | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 15.6% | 22.3% | 17.0% | 8.0% |
| Haley Collins | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 13.4% | 33.7% | 33.6% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 9.8% | 23.2% | 52.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.