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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+3.81vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+5.30vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.35+2.57vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.99+0.04vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University1.00+4.37vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.23+0.05vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.61-2.25vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia1.31+0.38vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.77-4.38vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.37-1.58vs Predicted
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11Columbia University-0.51+1.41vs Predicted
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12Queen's University0.53-1.62vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.14-6.88vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-1.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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7.3University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.0%1st Place
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5.57George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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4.04Dartmouth College2.990.2%1st Place
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9.37Northwestern University1.000.0%1st Place
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6.05Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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4.75Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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8.38University of Virginia1.310.0%1st Place
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4.62Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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8.42University of Vermont1.370.0%1st Place
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12.41Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
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10.38Queen's University0.530.0%1st Place
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6.12Old Dominion University2.140.1%1st Place
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12.78SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Carter | 12.5% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Aitana Mendiguren | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emma White | 17.5% | 17.1% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine O'Donnell | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 12.3% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
| Molly Pleskus | 9.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 14.0% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Julia Gowell | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 5.7% | 1.6% |
| Gabby Rizika | 13.6% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Brown | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 1.2% |
| Haley Collins | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 32.3% | 36.4% |
| Natalie Tanczak | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 22.8% | 17.1% | 6.8% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 10.2% | 25.3% | 50.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.