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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+3.79vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+2.38vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.99+0.98vs Predicted
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4Queen's University0.53+6.40vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.23+1.09vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.35-0.32vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+0.23vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.37+0.23vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.00+0.33vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia1.31-1.41vs Predicted
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11Columbia University-0.51+1.38vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.61-7.01vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.14-6.89vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-1.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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4.38Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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3.98Dartmouth College2.990.2%1st Place
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10.4Queen's University0.530.0%1st Place
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6.09Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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5.68George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.23University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.1%1st Place
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8.23University of Vermont1.370.0%1st Place
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9.33Northwestern University1.000.0%1st Place
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8.59University of Virginia1.310.0%1st Place
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12.38Columbia University-0.510.0%1st Place
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4.99Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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6.11Old Dominion University2.140.1%1st Place
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12.81SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Carter | 13.1% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 16.2% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma White | 16.8% | 18.6% | 14.9% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Tanczak | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 22.7% | 17.9% | 7.9% |
| Molly Pleskus | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Aitana Mendiguren | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Samantha Brown | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Katherine O'Donnell | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 17.0% | 17.6% | 9.7% | 1.5% |
| Julia Gowell | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Haley Collins | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 12.6% | 33.1% | 35.4% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 12.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 24.7% | 51.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.