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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.20+4.06vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.11+3.11vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92+2.82vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University0.23+6.40vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.06-1.88vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.04-0.39vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.52-0.26vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.66-1.46vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.82-2.89vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia1.27-2.26vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.28-0.67vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.13-3.93vs Predicted
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13Columbia University-0.91-0.56vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-2.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.06University of Vermont2.200.1%1st Place
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5.11Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.1%1st Place
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10.4Northwestern University0.230.0%1st Place
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3.12Dartmouth College3.060.3%1st Place
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5.61Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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6.74Tufts University1.520.1%1st Place
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6.54George Washington University1.660.1%1st Place
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6.11Queen's University1.820.1%1st Place
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7.74University of Virginia1.270.0%1st Place
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10.33Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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8.07University of California at Santa Barbara1.130.0%1st Place
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12.44Columbia University-0.910.0%1st Place
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11.9SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abigail Finkenauer | 12.1% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sebby Turner | 9.8% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Christine Moloney | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Susan Riley | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 19.4% | 18.7% | 9.4% |
| Audrey Giblin | 25.9% | 23.7% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Howie | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Lenz | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Sarah Alexander | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Jennifer Mackenzie | 8.3% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Anna Louise Devanny | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 19.4% | 18.2% | 8.9% |
| Julia Downey | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Catalina Feder | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 22.1% | 47.9% |
| Samantha Mislinski | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 27.3% | 30.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.