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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92+4.76vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.20+2.92vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.52+3.95vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.11+1.32vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.82+1.20vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.13+2.17vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.04-1.69vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia1.27-0.40vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University0.23+1.38vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.06-6.90vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.66-4.34vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.28-1.72vs Predicted
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13Columbia University-0.91-0.52vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.1%1st Place
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4.92University of Vermont2.200.1%1st Place
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6.95Tufts University1.520.1%1st Place
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5.32Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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6.2Queen's University1.820.1%1st Place
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8.17University of California at Santa Barbara1.130.0%1st Place
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5.31Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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7.6University of Virginia1.270.1%1st Place
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10.38Northwestern University0.230.0%1st Place
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3.1Dartmouth College3.060.3%1st Place
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6.66George Washington University1.660.1%1st Place
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10.28Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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12.48Columbia University-0.910.0%1st Place
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11.87SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Moloney | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Abigail Finkenauer | 12.3% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Lenz | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Sebby Turner | 9.5% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Mackenzie | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Julia Downey | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 1.1% |
| Grace Howie | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Anna Louise Devanny | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 1.0% |
| Susan Riley | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 19.7% | 18.7% | 8.8% |
| Audrey Giblin | 26.7% | 21.6% | 15.8% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 16.6% | 18.1% | 15.8% | 9.4% |
| Catalina Feder | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 21.1% | 49.2% |
| Samantha Mislinski | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 28.1% | 29.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.