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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.11+4.23vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.06+1.02vs Predicted
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3Queen's University1.82+3.09vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92+1.85vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.52+2.06vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.20-0.84vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.04-1.71vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University0.23+2.24vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.66-2.40vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara1.13-1.87vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia1.27-3.29vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.91+0.57vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.28-2.83vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.23Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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3.02Dartmouth College3.060.3%1st Place
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6.09Queen's University1.820.1%1st Place
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5.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.1%1st Place
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7.06Tufts University1.520.1%1st Place
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5.16University of Vermont2.200.1%1st Place
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5.29Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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10.24Northwestern University0.230.0%1st Place
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6.6George Washington University1.660.1%1st Place
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8.13University of California at Santa Barbara1.130.0%1st Place
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7.71University of Virginia1.270.0%1st Place
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12.57Columbia University-0.910.0%1st Place
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10.17Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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11.87SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebby Turner | 10.5% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Giblin | 28.0% | 22.3% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Mackenzie | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Christine Moloney | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Lenz | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Abigail Finkenauer | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Grace Howie | 11.4% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Susan Riley | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 20.3% | 17.4% | 10.2% |
| Sarah Alexander | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Julia Downey | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 15.3% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Anna Louise Devanny | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Catalina Feder | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 12.4% | 21.7% | 49.3% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 19.3% | 17.2% | 8.4% |
| Samantha Mislinski | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 29.4% | 29.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.