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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92+4.75vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.13+5.90vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.20+2.05vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.52+3.02vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.82+1.21vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.06-2.82vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.11-1.92vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.04-2.51vs Predicted
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9Columbia University-0.91+3.53vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.66-3.40vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia1.27-3.27vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.28-1.68vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.23-2.71vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-2.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.1%1st Place
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7.9University of California at Santa Barbara1.130.0%1st Place
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5.05University of Vermont2.200.1%1st Place
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7.02Tufts University1.520.1%1st Place
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6.21Queen's University1.820.1%1st Place
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3.18Dartmouth College3.060.3%1st Place
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5.08Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.49Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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12.53Columbia University-0.910.0%1st Place
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6.6George Washington University1.660.1%1st Place
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7.73University of Virginia1.270.0%1st Place
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10.32Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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10.29Northwestern University0.230.0%1st Place
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11.85SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Moloney | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Julia Downey | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Abigail Finkenauer | 12.4% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Lenz | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Jennifer Mackenzie | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Audrey Giblin | 27.0% | 20.3% | 16.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 11.1% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Grace Howie | 10.3% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Catalina Feder | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 11.8% | 22.2% | 49.4% |
| Sarah Alexander | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Anna Louise Devanny | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 18.1% | 18.2% | 8.4% |
| Susan Riley | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 19.6% | 17.9% | 9.0% |
| Samantha Mislinski | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 26.4% | 29.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.