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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.06+2.07vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.11+3.14vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92+2.81vs Predicted
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4Columbia University-0.91+8.54vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.20+0.22vs Predicted
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6Queen's University1.82+0.20vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.13+0.81vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.52-1.12vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.66-2.40vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University0.23+0.51vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia1.27-3.33vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-0.01vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.28-2.79vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.04-8.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.07Dartmouth College3.060.3%1st Place
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5.14Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.1%1st Place
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12.54Columbia University-0.910.0%1st Place
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5.22University of Vermont2.200.1%1st Place
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6.2Queen's University1.820.1%1st Place
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7.81University of California at Santa Barbara1.130.0%1st Place
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6.88Tufts University1.520.1%1st Place
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6.6George Washington University1.660.1%1st Place
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10.51Northwestern University0.230.0%1st Place
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7.67University of Virginia1.270.0%1st Place
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11.99SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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10.21Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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5.34Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audrey Giblin | 28.9% | 22.2% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 10.3% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Christine Moloney | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Catalina Feder | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 6.0% | 11.4% | 23.5% | 47.2% |
| Abigail Finkenauer | 9.0% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Mackenzie | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Julia Downey | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Charlotte Lenz | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Alexander | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Susan Riley | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 20.2% | 17.9% | 11.0% |
| Anna Louise Devanny | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Samantha Mislinski | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 9.6% | 16.1% | 27.4% | 30.5% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 18.1% | 17.8% | 8.3% |
| Grace Howie | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.