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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.13+7.00vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.82+3.87vs Predicted
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3Columbia University-0.91+9.40vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.11+1.34vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.52+2.08vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-0.07vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia1.27+0.45vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University0.23+2.27vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.66-2.40vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.04-4.42vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.06-7.82vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.20-6.85vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.28-2.77vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-2.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.0University of California at Santa Barbara1.130.1%1st Place
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5.87Queen's University1.820.1%1st Place
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12.4Columbia University-0.910.0%1st Place
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5.34Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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7.08Tufts University1.520.0%1st Place
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5.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.1%1st Place
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7.45University of Virginia1.270.0%1st Place
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10.27Northwestern University0.230.0%1st Place
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6.6George Washington University1.660.1%1st Place
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5.58Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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3.18Dartmouth College3.060.3%1st Place
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5.15University of Vermont2.200.1%1st Place
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10.23Old Dominion University0.280.0%1st Place
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11.91SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Downey | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Jennifer Mackenzie | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Catalina Feder | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 19.2% | 50.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Lenz | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Christine Moloney | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Anna Louise Devanny | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Susan Riley | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 20.5% | 18.2% | 10.1% |
| Sarah Alexander | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Grace Howie | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Audrey Giblin | 26.9% | 21.3% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abigail Finkenauer | 10.7% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jocelyn Rovniak | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 20.8% | 17.7% | 7.8% |
| Samantha Mislinski | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 30.3% | 29.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.