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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+7.83vs Predicted
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2Tulane University0.64+7.50vs Predicted
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3Boston College1.56+3.32vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University1.49+2.44vs Predicted
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5Tufts University0.66+4.11vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.17+1.19vs Predicted
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7Harvard University0.45+3.22vs Predicted
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8Yale University1.70-1.33vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.10+2.20vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.06-2.76vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.83-2.56vs Predicted
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12Brown University0.79-3.92vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.73+1.41vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64-4.67vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College0.73-6.48vs Predicted
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16Boston University0.25-3.96vs Predicted
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17Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-2.27vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University-0.17-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.83U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.085.0%1st Place
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9.5Tulane University0.644.5%1st Place
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6.32Boston College1.5611.1%1st Place
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6.44Northwestern University1.4910.4%1st Place
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9.11Tufts University0.665.1%1st Place
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7.19Dartmouth College1.178.3%1st Place
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10.22Harvard University0.454.1%1st Place
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6.67Yale University1.709.7%1st Place
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11.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.102.5%1st Place
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7.24University of Vermont1.068.3%1st Place
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8.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.836.6%1st Place
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8.08Brown University0.796.9%1st Place
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14.41Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.731.5%1st Place
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9.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.644.7%1st Place
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8.52Bowdoin College0.735.8%1st Place
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12.04Boston University0.252.1%1st Place
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14.73Maine Maritime Academy-0.821.2%1st Place
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12.73Northeastern University-0.172.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter McGonagle | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Lola Kohl | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Nick Budington | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Meredith Broadus | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Charlotte West | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Theresa Straw | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 2.3% |
| Alex Adams | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Simon Hammarlund | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 4.8% |
| Ethan Burt | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Hoffman | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Grace Ivancich | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Kevin McNeill | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 18.8% | 28.9% |
| Calvin Marsh | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Shea McGrath | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Richard Kalich | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% |
| Isaac Thompson | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 17.8% | 32.2% |
| Sylvia Burns | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.