Race 4A

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Robby Gearon 11.1% 13.0% 12.3% 12.9% 12.8% 9.5% 9.5% 7.3% 5.2% 4.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Greiner Hobbs 37.0% 24.0% 15.1% 10.8% 6.2% 2.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Max Neubelt 8.5% 10.8% 12.4% 11.6% 10.7% 12.4% 9.3% 8.2% 7.7% 4.4% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Daniel Lawless 5.0% 8.0% 7.4% 8.9% 10.9% 9.7% 10.5% 10.1% 8.7% 8.6% 7.6% 2.7% 1.9%
Tyler Rochon 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.8% 5.7% 6.6% 8.8% 10.6% 18.3% 30.6%
Lee Dumaliang 9.6% 9.0% 12.6% 10.5% 10.6% 12.3% 9.0% 9.1% 6.0% 5.6% 4.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Korbin Kierstead 3.0% 2.6% 3.8% 5.0% 5.1% 7.0% 5.1% 6.1% 9.8% 10.8% 14.2% 15.0% 12.5%
Nathaniel Johansson 10.0% 11.3% 13.1% 12.4% 11.2% 10.5% 11.5% 7.9% 5.8% 2.5% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Anders Ekholm 3.7% 4.3% 4.9% 5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 9.1% 10.7% 11.1% 12.1% 9.2% 9.7% 7.1%
John Lawless 5.2% 6.4% 5.5% 7.6% 9.5% 8.0% 10.3% 9.7% 10.3% 9.8% 6.9% 7.0% 3.8%
Alexander Singh 2.3% 3.1% 4.7% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4% 7.0% 10.4% 10.4% 12.4% 12.8% 9.7% 8.9%
Paul Hart 1.5% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 6.8% 7.1% 10.8% 13.6% 18.1% 19.8%
Colton Gerber 1.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.2% 4.0% 6.7% 6.6% 7.0% 10.7% 9.9% 14.0% 15.5% 14.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.