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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+7.69vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.18+4.37vs Predicted
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3Boston College1.56+3.11vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64+4.87vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University-0.17+7.36vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.17+0.77vs Predicted
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7Yale University1.70-0.71vs Predicted
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8Boston University0.25+3.84vs Predicted
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9Tufts University0.66-0.27vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.06-3.03vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology-0.40+2.01vs Predicted
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12Brown University0.79-3.90vs Predicted
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13Harvard University0.45-3.40vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.10-2.95vs Predicted
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15Tulane University0.64-6.34vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College0.53-6.87vs Predicted
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17Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-2.64vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.73-3.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.086.2%1st Place
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6.37Tufts University1.189.6%1st Place
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6.11Boston College1.5610.5%1st Place
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8.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.644.9%1st Place
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12.36Northeastern University-0.172.0%1st Place
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6.77Dartmouth College1.1710.2%1st Place
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6.29Yale University1.7010.8%1st Place
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11.84Boston University0.252.5%1st Place
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8.73Tufts University0.665.7%1st Place
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6.97University of Vermont1.069.2%1st Place
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13.01Massachusetts Institute of Technology-0.401.8%1st Place
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8.1Brown University0.795.3%1st Place
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9.6Harvard University0.455.1%1st Place
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11.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.103.0%1st Place
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8.66Tulane University0.646.1%1st Place
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9.13Bowdoin College0.534.7%1st Place
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14.36Maine Maritime Academy-0.821.1%1st Place
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14.08Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.731.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter McGonagle | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nick Budington | 10.5% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Calvin Marsh | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Sylvia Burns | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 10.3% |
| Charlotte West | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Alex Adams | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Richard Kalich | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 7.5% |
| Meredith Broadus | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Ethan Burt | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Shayne Bersin | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 13.6% |
| Grace Ivancich | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Theresa Straw | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Simon Hammarlund | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| Lola Kohl | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Cole Amaral | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Isaac Thompson | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 30.0% |
| Kevin McNeill | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 16.6% | 26.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.