Race 1B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hector Guzman 28.6% 20.4% 17.5% 11.3% 9.8% 5.1% 4.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vincent Storino 6.0% 5.4% 6.6% 7.4% 7.9% 9.5% 10.6% 10.0% 10.5% 9.5% 9.9% 5.0% 1.7%
Gray Kiger 8.8% 10.2% 10.5% 10.7% 11.3% 10.9% 10.7% 9.4% 7.5% 4.9% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3%
Austin Haag 3.0% 3.5% 5.4% 5.8% 6.8% 7.2% 8.3% 8.4% 10.8% 13.0% 12.2% 10.9% 4.7%
Margaret Kilvert 11.9% 13.9% 13.5% 9.4% 11.0% 11.3% 8.9% 7.7% 5.9% 3.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Peter Steo 9.6% 7.7% 8.2% 10.4% 11.6% 10.3% 9.0% 9.6% 9.8% 6.0% 4.7% 2.2% 0.9%
Brad Seferian 12.2% 14.9% 11.1% 14.8% 10.3% 9.3% 9.5% 6.9% 5.7% 2.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Noah Janssen 4.5% 6.1% 5.3% 6.7% 6.5% 8.0% 9.8% 9.9% 11.1% 13.0% 9.1% 7.0% 3.0%
Kristoffer Olsen 1.8% 1.8% 3.8% 3.1% 2.3% 4.0% 3.9% 5.1% 6.4% 11.6% 15.8% 19.6% 20.8%
Mason Sheen 1.0% 1.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 4.5% 7.7% 11.4% 21.9% 37.8%
Ian Palmer 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 2.3% 2.2% 4.2% 2.8% 5.4% 6.8% 8.6% 14.1% 23.4% 26.5%
Juan Lejarraga 7.2% 7.5% 8.1% 9.0% 9.3% 8.8% 10.9% 11.7% 8.5% 8.8% 5.4% 2.9% 1.9%
Allison Cahn 4.3% 5.9% 6.8% 7.0% 9.1% 8.6% 8.9% 11.2% 11.3% 10.7% 9.1% 5.0% 2.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.