Race 3B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Margaret Kilvert 11.1% 12.0% 13.4% 11.2% 12.6% 10.0% 9.4% 8.0% 6.0% 3.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Peter Steo 8.2% 7.3% 9.3% 9.6% 10.3% 12.5% 9.4% 9.1% 9.2% 8.0% 4.3% 2.4% 0.4%
Gray Kiger 8.7% 8.9% 11.6% 11.2% 11.5% 10.6% 10.9% 7.9% 8.4% 5.8% 3.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Noah Janssen 3.6% 5.5% 4.9% 7.2% 7.6% 7.9% 8.5% 9.1% 11.8% 11.6% 12.4% 7.5% 2.4%
Brad Seferian 13.4% 13.7% 12.0% 12.8% 9.9% 10.5% 9.3% 7.5% 5.6% 2.8% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Hector Guzman 27.1% 23.4% 15.8% 12.4% 8.1% 6.0% 3.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Vincent Storino 7.1% 6.4% 7.3% 7.5% 7.5% 9.0% 8.9% 11.2% 11.9% 9.0% 8.4% 4.7% 1.1%
Austin Haag 4.0% 4.8% 4.5% 5.0% 6.0% 6.9% 8.1% 10.6% 10.1% 13.4% 12.5% 10.0% 4.1%
Allison Cahn 6.5% 5.3% 5.8% 7.4% 9.0% 8.3% 9.4% 11.6% 9.9% 10.5% 9.5% 4.8% 2.0%
Kristoffer Olsen 1.9% 1.8% 3.2% 2.9% 2.6% 3.4% 4.9% 5.7% 7.7% 11.2% 14.7% 21.5% 18.5%
Juan Lejarraga 6.6% 8.3% 9.6% 9.3% 11.2% 9.5% 11.1% 9.0% 8.6% 8.0% 5.2% 3.1% 0.5%
Ian Palmer 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 2.1% 2.0% 3.3% 4.0% 4.7% 4.9% 7.0% 14.3% 21.4% 32.6%
Mason Sheen 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4% 3.7% 5.0% 8.8% 11.5% 22.3% 37.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.