Race 4B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hector Guzman 28.0% 21.4% 16.9% 12.5% 8.4% 6.0% 3.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Steo 8.3% 7.3% 8.3% 11.1% 11.2% 10.4% 10.1% 10.4% 7.4% 8.8% 3.6% 2.8% 0.3%
Austin Haag 3.1% 3.2% 3.8% 7.8% 6.5% 7.1% 6.5% 9.7% 11.3% 13.0% 14.0% 10.5% 3.5%
Gray Kiger 9.3% 9.3% 11.4% 11.6% 10.0% 10.1% 10.1% 9.1% 8.5% 5.8% 3.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Brad Seferian 13.1% 14.9% 12.4% 11.1% 10.9% 11.0% 8.8% 7.3% 5.1% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Margaret Kilvert 12.1% 13.0% 12.1% 10.3% 12.9% 10.6% 8.9% 7.4% 5.4% 4.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Noah Janssen 5.5% 5.3% 7.1% 5.3% 6.7% 7.1% 7.3% 12.0% 10.5% 12.6% 10.5% 7.3% 2.8%
Vincent Storino 5.3% 7.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.7% 9.3% 11.2% 9.4% 10.3% 11.1% 7.8% 4.6% 1.4%
Juan Lejarraga 7.0% 6.9% 8.6% 9.6% 9.0% 10.0% 11.9% 9.1% 9.8% 8.1% 6.0% 2.8% 1.2%
Kristoffer Olsen 1.4% 2.3% 2.6% 3.2% 3.2% 3.5% 4.5% 4.7% 10.0% 9.5% 15.4% 21.1% 18.6%
Allison Cahn 5.1% 6.8% 7.2% 7.3% 8.2% 9.8% 11.4% 10.7% 10.1% 9.4% 8.3% 3.7% 2.0%
Ian Palmer 1.0% 1.1% 2.2% 1.5% 2.4% 3.0% 2.8% 4.5% 5.8% 7.0% 13.8% 22.5% 32.4%
Mason Sheen 0.8% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 1.9% 2.1% 3.0% 3.9% 5.0% 7.1% 12.9% 22.3% 37.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.