Race 5B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hector Guzman 27.5% 23.2% 15.9% 11.9% 9.2% 5.8% 2.4% 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Juan Lejarraga 7.6% 7.2% 8.2% 9.8% 10.2% 9.8% 10.2% 10.8% 8.1% 9.4% 4.6% 3.6% 0.5%
Vincent Storino 4.8% 4.5% 8.6% 8.0% 7.7% 8.9% 9.1% 9.9% 13.7% 10.8% 8.1% 4.7% 1.2%
Austin Haag 3.2% 4.5% 4.3% 5.7% 6.8% 6.5% 9.0% 8.6% 10.0% 13.5% 13.9% 10.0% 4.0%
Peter Steo 9.1% 8.9% 9.4% 9.4% 10.7% 9.2% 11.3% 9.1% 9.1% 6.9% 4.2% 2.2% 0.5%
Noah Janssen 4.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.5% 7.2% 8.1% 8.8% 11.0% 10.3% 11.0% 11.6% 7.5% 2.9%
Brad Seferian 13.9% 12.2% 12.9% 13.4% 10.7% 10.8% 7.6% 7.1% 5.7% 3.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Margaret Kilvert 11.5% 13.3% 11.0% 11.9% 10.4% 12.9% 10.6% 6.9% 5.9% 2.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Gray Kiger 9.1% 10.3% 10.1% 9.6% 11.6% 11.5% 10.3% 7.6% 7.8% 6.2% 3.5% 2.2% 0.2%
Kristoffer Olsen 1.6% 2.3% 2.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.8% 3.1% 6.2% 9.2% 10.5% 14.6% 21.5% 18.4%
Allison Cahn 5.3% 5.6% 8.6% 8.4% 8.1% 8.7% 10.1% 11.0% 10.3% 9.2% 8.8% 4.1% 1.8%
Ian Palmer 1.1% 1.0% 2.1% 0.9% 2.6% 2.0% 4.4% 5.9% 3.9% 7.6% 14.9% 21.3% 32.3%
Mason Sheen 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 2.3% 1.4% 2.0% 3.1% 3.5% 5.2% 7.7% 12.5% 21.7% 37.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.