Race 9B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hector Guzman 27.1% 22.5% 16.9% 11.2% 9.9% 4.6% 3.5% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kyle Mergenthaler 9.1% 11.2% 12.7% 11.7% 11.2% 10.5% 10.4% 8.6% 7.3% 4.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2%
Vincent Storino 5.3% 4.6% 7.2% 7.8% 9.7% 9.1% 10.3% 9.9% 11.1% 9.5% 9.0% 4.7% 1.8%
Margaret Kilvert 11.8% 11.6% 11.8% 13.7% 10.5% 9.8% 9.3% 7.8% 6.5% 4.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3%
Allison Cahn 6.3% 5.8% 7.7% 6.0% 9.0% 8.6% 8.6% 11.5% 9.9% 11.0% 8.2% 5.6% 1.8%
Brad Seferian 13.8% 12.3% 12.9% 13.2% 11.0% 9.7% 7.3% 7.9% 5.3% 4.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Kristoffer Olsen 2.8% 2.2% 1.8% 3.0% 3.1% 4.9% 4.7% 5.1% 7.2% 9.9% 16.7% 19.8% 18.8%
Ian Palmer 1.3% 1.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 3.3% 3.0% 4.4% 6.1% 7.7% 12.8% 21.8% 31.3%
Juan Lejarraga 6.4% 8.8% 7.9% 9.0% 9.4% 10.5% 10.4% 9.0% 10.6% 7.2% 6.2% 3.6% 1.0%
Austin Haag 5.0% 3.6% 3.9% 5.1% 6.1% 8.1% 8.3% 10.5% 8.6% 13.3% 12.6% 8.9% 6.0%
Mason Sheen 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 2.1% 1.9% 3.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% 8.0% 13.7% 21.1% 34.5%
Noah Janssen 4.0% 5.0% 4.6% 6.5% 7.1% 7.3% 9.1% 8.4% 11.8% 12.7% 10.6% 9.3% 3.6%
Peter Steo 6.1% 10.2% 9.3% 8.4% 8.7% 10.6% 11.1% 10.2% 9.8% 8.0% 4.4% 2.7% 0.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.