Race 10B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hector Guzman 28.5% 19.7% 17.9% 12.4% 7.4% 5.7% 4.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margaret Kilvert 12.0% 11.3% 13.1% 12.4% 12.2% 9.6% 7.9% 9.3% 5.1% 4.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Peter Steo 6.1% 9.7% 8.4% 10.4% 9.2% 9.7% 12.6% 11.0% 9.0% 6.5% 5.0% 2.0% 0.4%
Kristoffer Olsen 1.5% 1.1% 2.7% 2.6% 4.0% 3.5% 4.8% 6.4% 8.2% 8.8% 14.5% 21.3% 20.6%
Brad Seferian 12.9% 15.4% 11.9% 11.2% 10.6% 11.1% 9.5% 7.2% 4.1% 3.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Juan Lejarraga 8.1% 7.8% 8.4% 9.5% 9.2% 10.9% 10.5% 8.6% 9.1% 8.2% 5.5% 3.3% 0.9%
Allison Cahn 6.2% 5.9% 7.3% 7.5% 9.3% 8.1% 8.8% 10.2% 10.7% 11.3% 8.6% 4.7% 1.4%
Kyle Mergenthaler 10.6% 11.5% 12.0% 11.5% 9.3% 13.6% 10.3% 8.0% 5.7% 3.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Vincent Storino 5.1% 6.0% 6.8% 7.6% 8.6% 8.2% 10.7% 9.8% 11.2% 10.4% 8.7% 5.0% 1.9%
Ian Palmer 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 2.6% 2.6% 3.0% 2.2% 3.8% 6.3% 9.2% 12.6% 21.3% 32.0%
Mason Sheen 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 2.4% 3.4% 2.9% 4.1% 5.2% 8.7% 13.2% 22.6% 33.2%
Noah Janssen 4.4% 4.7% 4.5% 5.9% 8.3% 7.2% 7.1% 10.3% 12.2% 11.4% 12.1% 7.9% 4.0%
Austin Haag 2.9% 3.8% 4.2% 5.3% 6.9% 6.0% 8.3% 9.3% 11.7% 13.7% 13.0% 9.7% 5.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.