Race 11B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hector Guzman 27.5% 20.5% 17.0% 12.5% 9.3% 5.6% 3.3% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Allison Cahn 5.6% 5.2% 7.0% 7.7% 7.1% 8.8% 10.1% 10.4% 12.4% 10.2% 8.7% 5.2% 1.6%
Margaret Kilvert 10.1% 13.1% 12.0% 11.4% 11.7% 11.4% 9.7% 8.7% 5.7% 3.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3%
Austin Haag 3.3% 3.7% 4.6% 5.7% 7.3% 7.2% 8.8% 7.0% 11.0% 13.0% 13.3% 10.5% 4.6%
Kyle Mergenthaler 10.6% 13.8% 10.8% 12.0% 8.6% 10.5% 10.1% 9.9% 5.7% 5.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2%
Juan Lejarraga 7.7% 8.2% 7.9% 9.3% 11.5% 9.4% 9.8% 9.8% 8.7% 8.2% 5.9% 2.8% 0.8%
Vincent Storino 6.2% 5.9% 8.3% 7.6% 6.4% 8.7% 10.5% 10.3% 10.5% 12.9% 6.8% 4.6% 1.3%
Brad Seferian 12.4% 12.9% 13.4% 10.5% 12.7% 11.5% 9.1% 8.0% 3.7% 3.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Mason Sheen 0.9% 1.4% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 3.2% 3.2% 4.5% 7.5% 10.4% 22.0% 38.4%
Peter Steo 8.7% 7.2% 9.0% 10.6% 10.6% 10.4% 8.9% 9.8% 9.2% 6.9% 4.7% 3.0% 1.0%
Kristoffer Olsen 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% 3.0% 4.1% 4.9% 5.3% 6.1% 7.6% 10.4% 17.2% 19.7% 16.5%
Noah Janssen 3.9% 5.3% 5.0% 5.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.9% 10.8% 12.0% 11.5% 12.5% 7.4% 4.0%
Ian Palmer 1.6% 1.2% 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 2.5% 3.3% 3.5% 7.6% 6.7% 15.3% 22.8% 31.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.