Race 12B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hector Guzman 28.3% 19.8% 17.2% 12.6% 8.7% 6.2% 3.5% 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Margaret Kilvert 11.3% 11.4% 11.6% 13.4% 11.9% 10.0% 9.4% 7.7% 5.7% 4.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Peter Steo 6.1% 8.2% 10.1% 9.2% 10.3% 10.7% 10.3% 11.6% 8.3% 8.0% 4.0% 2.5% 0.7%
Juan Lejarraga 6.6% 7.6% 8.2% 8.8% 11.5% 10.7% 9.9% 9.3% 9.4% 8.4% 6.4% 2.5% 0.7%
Kyle Mergenthaler 10.8% 11.7% 12.7% 10.5% 10.1% 9.4% 9.8% 10.9% 6.3% 4.1% 2.4% 1.2% 0.1%
Austin Haag 4.2% 3.8% 5.2% 4.9% 6.5% 6.8% 7.9% 9.5% 12.1% 13.3% 11.3% 10.1% 4.4%
Vincent Storino 6.3% 7.5% 7.0% 7.4% 7.0% 7.7% 10.8% 9.5% 12.6% 9.4% 8.5% 4.8% 1.5%
Kristoffer Olsen 1.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 3.8% 4.4% 3.8% 5.8% 8.0% 10.5% 16.1% 22.3% 16.6%
Noah Janssen 4.5% 5.2% 4.6% 5.6% 7.2% 8.5% 8.0% 11.1% 11.2% 10.4% 13.3% 7.4% 3.0%
Allison Cahn 6.8% 4.9% 5.3% 9.3% 8.1% 9.7% 9.6% 9.6% 10.3% 10.4% 8.5% 5.0% 2.5%
Brad Seferian 11.9% 15.0% 12.3% 12.9% 11.6% 10.8% 9.1% 6.6% 4.6% 3.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Ian Palmer 0.7% 1.2% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 3.3% 4.8% 4.3% 5.2% 7.8% 13.4% 21.7% 32.1%
Mason Sheen 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 3.1% 2.3% 4.9% 9.9% 12.5% 20.7% 38.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.