Race 13B

david-lee-arnoff

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hector Guzman 27.6% 20.5% 18.0% 11.9% 8.6% 6.2% 3.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Kyle Mergenthaler 11.1% 8.8% 12.6% 11.4% 13.7% 8.8% 8.4% 9.9% 6.8% 4.1% 2.9% 1.4% 0.1%
Brad Seferian 10.6% 13.9% 13.2% 12.8% 8.4% 12.5% 10.6% 7.7% 5.0% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Vincent Storino 5.1% 6.7% 6.1% 8.7% 8.1% 8.6% 9.8% 10.9% 9.3% 11.1% 8.9% 5.4% 1.3%
Allison Cahn 6.5% 5.2% 7.4% 8.7% 7.9% 8.5% 8.3% 9.7% 13.2% 9.7% 8.6% 5.3% 1.0%
Peter Steo 8.8% 8.1% 8.6% 9.4% 11.2% 10.4% 11.1% 8.0% 9.1% 6.9% 5.3% 2.9% 0.2%
Margaret Kilvert 12.1% 13.2% 12.0% 10.3% 12.6% 10.5% 8.4% 8.4% 5.9% 4.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4%
Austin Haag 3.2% 5.6% 3.2% 6.0% 6.1% 7.0% 8.1% 10.3% 10.7% 13.6% 13.0% 9.1% 4.1%
Noah Janssen 4.1% 5.2% 4.6% 5.2% 7.8% 7.6% 8.6% 11.9% 10.5% 12.5% 11.1% 7.7% 3.2%
Kristoffer Olsen 1.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.8% 3.1% 3.0% 5.6% 5.3% 7.8% 10.3% 16.8% 20.4% 18.7%
Juan Lejarraga 7.3% 8.7% 8.9% 9.2% 8.9% 12.2% 10.7% 9.1% 8.6% 8.3% 5.0% 2.3% 0.8%
Mason Sheen 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.9% 1.8% 2.2% 3.1% 3.7% 6.6% 5.9% 11.9% 21.8% 38.4%
Ian Palmer 1.3% 0.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 2.5% 3.4% 3.4% 5.8% 9.2% 13.8% 22.4% 31.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.