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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+7.60vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.18+4.25vs Predicted
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3Tulane University0.64+5.78vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College0.53+5.29vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College1.17+2.12vs Predicted
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6Boston College1.56+0.03vs Predicted
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7Boston University0.25+4.67vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.66+0.63vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.06-2.33vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.70-3.59vs Predicted
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11Brown University0.79-2.98vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.10-0.81vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology-0.40-0.09vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.64-5.10vs Predicted
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15Harvard University0.45-5.25vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University-0.17-3.62vs Predicted
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17Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-2.62vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.73-3.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.085.0%1st Place
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6.25Tufts University1.1810.8%1st Place
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8.78Tulane University0.646.4%1st Place
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9.29Bowdoin College0.534.1%1st Place
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7.12Dartmouth College1.178.6%1st Place
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6.03Boston College1.5611.5%1st Place
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11.67Boston University0.251.9%1st Place
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8.63Tufts University0.665.8%1st Place
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6.67University of Vermont1.069.2%1st Place
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6.41Yale University1.7010.3%1st Place
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8.02Brown University0.796.7%1st Place
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11.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.102.9%1st Place
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12.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology-0.401.5%1st Place
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8.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.645.2%1st Place
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9.75Harvard University0.454.7%1st Place
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12.38Northeastern University-0.172.5%1st Place
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14.38Maine Maritime Academy-0.821.5%1st Place
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14.05Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.731.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter McGonagle | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lola Kohl | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Cole Amaral | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Charlotte West | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nick Budington | 11.5% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Richard Kalich | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 7.5% |
| Meredith Broadus | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Ethan Burt | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Alex Adams | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Grace Ivancich | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Simon Hammarlund | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.1% |
| Shayne Bersin | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 13.9% |
| Calvin Marsh | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Theresa Straw | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Sylvia Burns | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Isaac Thompson | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 17.6% | 30.4% |
| Kevin McNeill | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 17.1% | 24.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.