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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+3.99vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+6.71vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.49+4.72vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.82+6.31vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+2.31vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.53+1.71vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.24+1.65vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.60-0.85vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.48-1.03vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-1.95vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University2.21+1.56vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.84-5.56vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.71-2.14vs Predicted
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14Fordham University3.16-4.81vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.30-6.54vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.63-1.77vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University2.16-4.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.99Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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8.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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7.72Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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10.31Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
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7.31Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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7.71Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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8.65Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.15Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.97Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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12.56Salve Regina University2.210.0%1st Place
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6.44University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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10.86Connecticut College2.710.0%1st Place
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9.19Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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8.46U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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14.23Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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12.68Northeastern University2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 16.5% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| John Rolander | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 0.7% |
| Nick Sertl | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Trevor Long | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Sean Beaulieu | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 17.1% | 19.0% |
| Rachel Bryer | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Walter Florio | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 6.6% |
| Roberto Stevens | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 1.4% |
| Parker Loftus | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Alexander Smith | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 16.5% | 39.4% |
| Peter Christensen | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 16.5% | 19.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.