Race 11A

navy-fall-women

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick 16.6% 14.7% 12.5% 12.3% 10.8% 7.9% 9.7% 5.0% 5.0% 2.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2%
Julia Lambert 8.5% 11.4% 9.3% 10.0% 9.7% 10.2% 8.9% 7.6% 8.5% 6.9% 5.3% 2.7% 1.0%
Carolyn Smith 10.7% 12.1% 11.6% 10.3% 9.7% 9.2% 11.1% 7.0% 6.1% 5.6% 3.9% 2.2% 0.5%
Casey Klingler 12.0% 10.8% 11.2% 11.3% 9.6% 10.0% 8.5% 7.1% 7.1% 5.8% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6%
Elise Gehling 6.9% 5.5% 6.9% 6.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.0% 9.4% 9.7% 9.7% 10.3% 9.6% 3.2%
Miranda Bakos 7.5% 7.5% 8.9% 7.4% 9.3% 8.4% 8.4% 9.3% 8.2% 8.1% 7.7% 6.4% 2.9%
Kate Klement 5.9% 4.2% 6.1% 6.0% 5.9% 5.7% 6.9% 8.6% 8.0% 10.8% 13.2% 11.6% 7.1%
Rose Edwards 8.2% 10.3% 8.7% 8.6% 7.9% 9.2% 10.2% 9.4% 9.1% 7.8% 5.7% 4.1% 0.8%
Hannah Hughes 5.4% 6.3% 5.1% 6.3% 7.1% 7.6% 7.8% 8.6% 10.9% 10.1% 10.5% 9.8% 4.5%
Bailey Carter 8.2% 7.3% 8.3% 7.7% 9.5% 10.3% 7.2% 8.4% 9.0% 8.2% 7.7% 5.9% 2.3%
Megan Hostetter 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.9% 2.1% 3.0% 2.5% 4.3% 3.1% 6.8% 10.0% 18.5% 44.2%
Adelaide Ferguson 7.3% 6.8% 7.9% 8.8% 8.3% 7.6% 8.0% 9.2% 9.5% 9.7% 9.0% 4.8% 3.1%
Samara Leith 1.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 2.5% 3.3% 3.8% 6.1% 5.8% 8.1% 10.2% 22.0% 29.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.