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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.75+1.09vs Predicted
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2Brandeis University1.25+2.45vs Predicted
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3Amherst College0.96+1.90vs Predicted
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4University of Connecticut0.66+1.50vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College1.84-1.59vs Predicted
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6University of Connecticut0.66-0.50vs Predicted
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7Queen's University0.38-1.13vs Predicted
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8McGill University1.60-4.11vs Predicted
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10McGill University0.37-4.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.09Tufts University2.750.4%1st Place
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4.45Brandeis University1.250.1%1st Place
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4.9Amherst College0.960.1%1st Place
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5.5University of Connecticut0.660.0%1st Place
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3.41Middlebury College1.840.2%1st Place
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5.5University of Connecticut0.660.0%1st Place
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5.87Queen's University0.380.0%1st Place
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3.89McGill University1.600.1%1st Place
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5.9McGill University0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Altreuter | 43.3% | 27.7% | 14.3% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jared Dunn | 9.3% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 15.0% | 18.1% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Dowling | 6.6% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 16.4% | 16.9% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| James Fales | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 21.1% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| Bianca Dragone | 16.1% | 19.1% | 21.3% | 16.1% | 13.4% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| James Fales | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 21.1% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| Joy MacDonald | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 15.5% | 17.7% | 29.8% | 0.0% |
| Leif Macdonald | 12.9% | 15.0% | 17.6% | 18.8% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Emily Tsang | 2.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 18.0% | 20.2% | 27.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.