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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+7.58vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.60+6.08vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.61+5.01vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.74+3.25vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+2.20vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.24+3.30vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.24-1.54vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-0.55vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.50-0.81vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-1.83vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.21-1.45vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-1.00vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.73-5.75vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.76-3.04vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.52+0.06vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University0.89+0.39vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.90-6.17vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.43-5.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.58Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.08Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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8.01Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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7.25Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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7.2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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9.3Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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5.46Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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7.45St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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8.19Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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9.55Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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11.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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7.25Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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10.96University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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15.06Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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16.39North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
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10.83University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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12.26Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Nick Sertl | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Will La Dow | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Ty Ingram | 7.6% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.2% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Adam | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Charles Sinks | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Read | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 29.6% | 25.6% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 18.3% | 57.5% |
| William Crary | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 2.3% |
| Thomas Balk | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.