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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+6.45vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.61+6.08vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.74+4.52vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.50+4.17vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.90+5.53vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+1.58vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+3.68vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.60-0.12vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.73-1.74vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.24-4.30vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-2.89vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.48-3.32vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.24-3.85vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College3.21-4.87vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.43-2.62vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island2.76-4.72vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.52-1.82vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University0.89-1.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.08Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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7.52Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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8.17Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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10.53University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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7.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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7.88Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.26Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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5.7Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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8.68Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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9.15Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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9.13Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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12.38Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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15.18Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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16.25North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Ingram | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Will La Dow | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| William Crary | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 1.6% |
| Bradley Adam | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 2.0% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Charles Sinks | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.7% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Balk | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 5.1% |
| Brendan Read | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 7.3% | 3.4% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 29.4% | 28.6% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 7.6% | 19.7% | 54.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.