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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+4.69vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.21+7.65vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.48+5.52vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.24+5.16vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+2.48vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.90+4.66vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.73+0.32vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.61-0.26vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.74-1.75vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+0.87vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.50-2.61vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.60-3.81vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-5.91vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University0.89+2.27vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.76-3.83vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-8.04vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.43-4.39vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.52-3.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.69Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.65Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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8.52Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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9.16Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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10.66University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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7.32Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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7.74Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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7.25Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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10.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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8.39Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.19Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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16.27North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
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11.17University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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7.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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12.61Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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14.99Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 12.3% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| William Crary | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 1.9% |
| Charles Sinks | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Will La Dow | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 2.6% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Ty Ingram | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 16.8% | 55.7% |
| Brendan Read | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 2.5% |
| Charles Miller | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Balk | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 15.5% | 6.7% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 14.3% | 26.4% | 26.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.