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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College3.73+6.60vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+5.45vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.50+5.52vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+3.83vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.60+2.88vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.24+3.28vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.21+2.43vs Predicted
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8Yale University4.24-2.57vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.61-1.19vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+0.90vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.74-3.52vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.43+0.67vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-5.57vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.90-3.63vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.76-3.83vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.48-7.62vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University0.89-0.56vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.52-3.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.6Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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7.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.52Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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7.88Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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9.28Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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9.43Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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5.43Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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7.81Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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10.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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7.48Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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12.67Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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7.43St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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10.37University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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11.17University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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8.38Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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16.44North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
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14.96Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sinks | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ty Ingram | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Charles Miller | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.4% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| Will La Dow | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Balk | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 16.6% | 6.7% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| William Crary | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 1.8% |
| Brendan Read | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.1% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 6.6% | 16.9% | 59.3% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 13.8% | 28.0% | 24.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.