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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University3.24+8.50vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+6.19vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.61+5.07vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+3.12vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+5.51vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.74+1.33vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.21+2.42vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.60-0.18vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.73-1.72vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.24-4.34vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69-3.28vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.76-0.50vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.50-4.84vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.48-5.91vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.52+0.07vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont2.90-5.27vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.43-4.44vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University0.89-1.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.5Boston University3.240.0%1st Place
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8.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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8.07Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
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7.12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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10.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
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7.33Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.42Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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7.82Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.28Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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5.66Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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7.72St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
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11.5University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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8.16Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.09Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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15.07Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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10.73University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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12.56Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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16.27North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravi Parent | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| Charles Miller | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Ty Ingram | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Will La Dow | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Charles Sinks | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Adam | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Brendan Read | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 3.2% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 12.0% | 28.1% | 26.6% |
| William Crary | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Thomas Balk | 2.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 7.4% | 18.5% | 56.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.