← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University3.48+7.31vs Predicted
-
2Connecticut College3.21+7.48vs Predicted
-
3Yale University3.25+6.27vs Predicted
-
4Stanford University3.74+3.04vs Predicted
-
5Harvard University3.60+2.61vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College3.61+1.61vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+0.28vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90+2.37vs Predicted
-
9Boston University3.24+0.06vs Predicted
-
10Boston College3.73-2.63vs Predicted
-
11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-3.22vs Predicted
-
12Old Dominion University3.50-3.63vs Predicted
-
13University of Rhode Island2.76-2.10vs Predicted
-
14University of Vermont2.90-3.78vs Predicted
-
15Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-8.14vs Predicted
-
16North Carolina State University0.89+0.37vs Predicted
-
17Cornell University2.43-4.55vs Predicted
-
18Washington College1.63-3.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.31Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
-
9.48Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
-
9.27Yale University3.250.0%1st Place
-
7.04Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
-
7.61Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
-
7.61Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
-
7.28St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
-
10.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
-
9.06Boston University3.240.0%1st Place
-
7.37Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
-
7.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
-
8.37Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
-
10.9University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
-
10.22University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
-
6.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
-
16.37North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
-
12.45Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
-
14.66Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Will La Dow | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Nick Sertl | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Bradley Adam | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 1.3% |
| Ravi Parent | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Charles Sinks | 9.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Charles Miller | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Brendan Read | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
| William Crary | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 2.2% |
| Ty Ingram | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 16.7% | 59.2% |
| Thomas Balk | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 7.8% |
| Alexander Smith | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 29.6% | 21.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.