← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Connecticut College3.21+8.35vs Predicted
-
2Brown University3.48+6.33vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University3.60+4.85vs Predicted
-
4Yale University3.25+4.96vs Predicted
-
5University of Rhode Island2.76+5.98vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.69+1.35vs Predicted
-
7Boston University3.24+2.14vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University2.43+4.18vs Predicted
-
9Dartmouth College3.61-1.43vs Predicted
-
10Boston College3.73-2.67vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-3.88vs Predicted
-
12Old Dominion University3.50-3.58vs Predicted
-
13Stanford University3.74-6.01vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.90-3.80vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont2.90-4.60vs Predicted
-
16North Carolina State University0.89+0.35vs Predicted
-
17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-9.15vs Predicted
-
18Washington College1.63-3.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.35Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
-
8.33Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
-
7.85Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
-
8.96Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
-
10.98University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
-
7.35St. Mary's College of Maryland3.690.1%1st Place
-
9.14Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
-
12.18Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
-
7.57Dartmouth College3.610.1%1st Place
-
7.33Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
-
7.12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
-
8.42Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
-
6.99Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
-
10.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.900.0%1st Place
-
10.4University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
-
16.35North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
-
7.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
-
14.63Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Brendan Read | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 3.5% |
| Bradley Adam | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Balk | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 12.9% | 6.7% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Charles Sinks | 9.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Will La Dow | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Austin Lettengarver | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 2.2% |
| William Crary | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 1.8% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 18.3% | 58.0% |
| Charles Miller | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Smith | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 13.0% | 27.0% | 22.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.