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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+7.25vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.81+7.86vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.38+4.66vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.38+3.27vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.09+3.47vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+1.41vs Predicted
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7Boston College4.01-1.82vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.72-1.92vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.16vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.82-0.16vs Predicted
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11Stanford University2.92-1.64vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.42-4.42vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.70-3.10vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.42-3.17vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-6.97vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.38-4.67vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University-0.39+0.27vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.80-2.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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9.86Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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7.66Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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7.27Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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8.47University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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7.41Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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5.18Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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6.08Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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11.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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9.84Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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9.36Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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7.58Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.9University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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10.83Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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8.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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11.33Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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17.27North Carolina State University-0.390.0%1st Place
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15.51Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Tara | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Dakota Northrup | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Trevor Long | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Erika Reineke | 13.9% | 14.6% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kiss | 10.6% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 7.1% | 1.2% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 0.8% |
| Mack Fox | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 1.5% |
| Elijah Jones | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 13.6% | 75.9% |
| William Sunkler | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 46.5% | 18.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.