← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University3.38+6.68vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College3.38+5.62vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+5.29vs Predicted
-
4Connecticut College2.81+5.56vs Predicted
-
5University of Rhode Island3.09+3.48vs Predicted
-
6University of Vermont2.70+4.15vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+4.23vs Predicted
-
8Boston University3.42-0.73vs Predicted
-
9Old Dominion University2.82+0.62vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-1.63vs Predicted
-
11Yale University3.72-4.74vs Predicted
-
12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-4.20vs Predicted
-
13Boston College4.01-7.89vs Predicted
-
14Stanford University2.92-5.01vs Predicted
-
15Washington College1.26-0.23vs Predicted
-
16Harvard University2.42-4.76vs Predicted
-
17North Carolina State University-0.39+0.35vs Predicted
-
18Cornell University2.38-6.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.68Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
-
7.62Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
-
8.29St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
-
9.56Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
-
8.48University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
-
10.15University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
-
11.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
-
7.27Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
-
9.62Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
-
8.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
-
6.26Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
-
7.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
-
5.11Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
-
8.99Stanford University2.920.0%1st Place
-
14.77Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
-
11.24Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
-
17.35North Carolina State University-0.390.0%1st Place
-
11.22Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Tara | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Carter Pemberton | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Dakota Northrup | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 0.9% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 0.9% |
| Hannah Polster | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 0.3% |
| Mack Fox | 6.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kiss | 10.3% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Long | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 14.2% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Paul Hart | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 38.7% | 12.3% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 1.0% |
| Elijah Jones | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 7.9% | 81.9% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.