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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.38+6.64vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.38+5.61vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21+5.36vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.72+2.10vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.01+0.16vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+2.16vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.09+1.56vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+3.14vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-1.62vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.42-2.51vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.38+0.50vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.81-1.98vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.92-3.93vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.82-4.63vs Predicted
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15Harvard University2.42-3.86vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont2.70-5.81vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.26-2.11vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University-0.39-0.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.64Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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7.61Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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8.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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6.1Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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5.16Boston College4.010.2%1st Place
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8.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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8.56University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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11.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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7.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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7.49Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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11.5Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.02Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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9.07Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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11.14Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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10.19University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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14.89Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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17.21North Carolina State University-0.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tara | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Kiss | 11.1% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 15.6% | 14.9% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Dakota Northrup | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 7.9% | 1.0% |
| Trevor Long | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Polster | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 9.8% | 1.9% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 0.7% |
| Maeve White | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 1.3% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 0.8% |
| Paul Hart | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 41.8% | 12.5% |
| Elijah Jones | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 9.1% | 80.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.