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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.38+6.66vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.01+3.21vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.38+4.57vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.09+4.39vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.82+4.46vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.72+0.06vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+1.05vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-1.60vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.81+0.60vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+1.39vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.84-1.35vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.42-0.58vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-5.05vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.38-3.07vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.26-0.28vs Predicted
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16Stanford University2.92-6.79vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.70-6.88vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University-0.39-0.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.66Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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5.21Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.57Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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8.39University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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9.46Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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6.06Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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6.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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9.6Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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11.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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9.65Boston University2.840.0%1st Place
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11.42Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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7.95St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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10.93Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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14.72Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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9.21Stanford University2.920.0%1st Place
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10.12University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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17.2North Carolina State University-0.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Erika Reineke | 12.2% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Dakota Northrup | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Joseph Kiss | 10.9% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Alexander Stewart | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 0.1% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 8.9% | 0.8% |
| Lydia Grasberger | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% |
| Patrick Tara | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 1.6% |
| Paul Hart | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 39.4% | 11.7% |
| Maeve White | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Elijah Jones | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 7.4% | 80.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.