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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College4.01+4.36vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.72+4.26vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.38+4.54vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.42+6.97vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.81+4.55vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.38+1.40vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+4.15vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.82+1.44vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-2.59vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.09-1.26vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.38+0.42vs Predicted
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12Stanford University2.92-2.46vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.84-3.66vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-6.17vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.70-5.05vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.21-7.98vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.26-2.14vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University-0.39-0.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.36Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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6.26Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.54Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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10.97Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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9.55Connecticut College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.4Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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11.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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9.44Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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6.41Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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8.74University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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11.42Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.54Stanford University2.920.0%1st Place
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9.34Boston University2.840.1%1st Place
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7.83U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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9.95University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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8.02St. Mary's College of Maryland3.210.1%1st Place
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14.86Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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17.21North Carolina State University-0.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erika Reineke | 13.5% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kiss | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Floyd | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 1.1% |
| Carter Pemberton | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 1.5% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Stewart | 9.2% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Dakota Northrup | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 2.2% |
| Maeve White | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Lydia Grasberger | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Mack Fox | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Tara | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 42.0% | 12.1% |
| Elijah Jones | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 8.1% | 80.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.